Nearly one in four French people would vote for a list submitted by the National Front in the upcoming municipal elections, according to a poll published on Monday, carried out by the LH2 institute for Le Nouvel Observateur. However, 69% of respondents say they are not ready to vote for the FN in the next elections, among them 57% state that they will “definitely not” choice.
This result shows a “reserve voice changes over previous elections”, decrypts Erwan Lestrohan, director of LH2 studies. During the 2012 presidential election, Marine Le Pen had collected 17.9% of the vote.
Enlargement of the FN electorate
Who is behind this potential new voice? “The electorate has expanded, and affects more vulnerable populations, far from urban centers,” Erwan Lestrohan analysis.
The profile that contains the main characteristics associated with a possible FN vote is: be worker, employee, or have incomes below 1,000 euros a month (35%, 35% and 32% of them declare potential voters FN in the upcoming municipal), have a lower level of undergraduate studies (30%), and living in a rural community (31% of the inhabitants of rural communities of less than 2 000 inhabitants said they might opt for a list FN).
The question of party membership was also raised. If only 9% of supporters left and 12% of the modem might opt for the FN, they are one in five in the UMP (21%), and 93% among FN sympathizers. Among the supporters of right, 25% of individuals who reported voting for Nicolas Sarkozy in the first round in 2012 say they can make the choice of the FN for the upcoming municipal, notes the study. “Knowing what party will know whether or not a voice of loss will be at stake in the next six months,” predicts Erwan Lestrohan.
The FN, a “classic right-wing party” for four French
Finally, and in line with the strategy of demonization of the FN, the institute noted that four French positions the FN as a “classic right-wing party,” thus going in the direction of Marine Le Pen wants to remove the extreme right adjective for his party. A perception that goes along with the expression of a potential FN vote: “The people who rank the FN as a classic right-wing party are those dédiabolisé a vote, and could be ready to switch FN in the next elections” concludes Erwan Lestrohan. A large majority of the population (64%) still believes that the FN is a “far right.”
This survey was conducted on October 4 and 5 on a sample of 964 people constituted under the quota method, representative of the French population aged 18 and older.